Many say expect 2010 to be more like 2006 for the Florida Gators. If Florida's QB for 2010 John Brantley has stats similar to Chris Leak's 2006 stats it could be a disappointing season.
In 2006 the Gators had a great defense, ball control is a cornerstone of Urban Meyer football but that year it was the Commandment of the season.
In 2006 Leak had his best season with a QB rating of 145, in comparison Tim Tebow had ratings of 172, 172 and 164 in 2009. Leak in '06 had his best completion percentage 63.6% he had 23 TDs and 13 INTs. In his career Tebow averaged 66.3%, he had 88 TD passes and 16 INTs.
In no season did Tebow have more than six INTs.
Leak carried the ball a lot in Urban Meyer's first two seasons at Florida, certainly a lot more than he cared too. He rushed the ball 105 times in 2005 and 77 times in 2006. He only had 89 yards and 8 TDs in 2005 then 30 yards and 3 TDs in 2006. There weren't that many designed runs and sack yardage makes it difficult to judge Leak's production in this area.
Leak was aided by the freshman Tebow back in 2006. Tebow had 89 carries for 469 yards and 8 TDs.
In 2006 the Gators had a great freshman in Percy Harvin, Andre Caldwell was a junior, Dallas Baker and Jemalle Cornelius were seniors, Cornelius Ingram had a good year, Billy Latsko and DeShawn Wynn filled out the backfield. Drew Miller and Phil Trautwein were the top offensive linemen that season.
Florida certainly had the weapons back in 2006 but they relied on the defense - Jarvis Moss and Derrick Harvey at ends, Ray McDonald, Steven Harris and Joe Cohen inside, Earl Everett, Brandon Siler, Brandon Spikes, Ryan Stamper and Brain Crum at linebacker, Reggie Lews and Ryan Smith at corner, Tony Joiner and Reggie Lewis back at safety.
It was a great defense that only allowed 86 first half points in 14 games. They averaged 29.8 points a game against 13.5 allowed a victory margin of over two TDs, there was no need to push the offense.
But that need might be there for 2010.
Enter John Brantley a fourth year junior who according to Gator football strength and conditioning coach Mickey Marotti is a grown-ass man. Young John certainly wasn't when he arrived at Florida a thin 6-3, 192 pounds, he's put on 20 pounds of Marotti.
Brantley could be complemented by a gifted freshman in Trey Burton, at 6-2, 219 he's an excellent runner with rapidly improving passing skills over the spring. Burton could come in and do what Tebow did in certain situations and throws the ball well enough for the coaching staff to give him the go within his package.
But don't expect a repeat of Chris Leak in 2006 that simply won't be acceptable for 2010.
Leak was sacked 23 times in 2006, Tebow was sacked 15 times in '08 but doubled that to 29 in '09. With Florida's teething but very talented defense 13 INTs and 25 sacks will be a disaster to Meyer's overall game plan for a successful season in 2010.
It's doubtful that Meyer will hold back the offense with Brantley's passing skills and as talented a group of young receivers the Gators have had.
Throw in as good an offensive line Florida's seen in many years. Three players made the 2010 SEC Media Days Preseason All-SEC Football Team - 1St Team - Mike Pouncey OC, 2nd Team - Carl Johnson OG and Marcus Gilbert OT. All seniors, not mentioned is Xavier Nixon the returning starter at LT, a true sophomore.
Florida has at least four talented players with loads of experience for that fifth spot, Meyer mentioned in SEC media days that Matt Patchan could end up there along with James Wilson or Maruice Hurt, he also mentioned Jon Halipanio as young guy coming on strong and being in the mix.
This line on paper appears much stronger than the 2006 group.
With fine experience and depth at running back it makes sense for the Gators to be an attacking team this fall with the expected high level special teams play look for Florida's defense to be put into good positions the majority of the season.
What will help Brantley is one thing the Gators haven't had since Urban Meyer has been the coach. They will have two slot receivers with tremendous skill levels. Chris Rainey is a head scratcher, the question is why wasn't he moved to this Percy Harvin position in 2009? He's a baller with elusive open field skills off the charts.
Oh well Rainey's there now and Andre Debose the guy recruited to take Harvin's spot is now healthy. Debose was the gem of the 2009 recruiting class but ended up redshirting due to hamstring issues. Back in 2009 both Rivals and Scout gave Florida three 5-star recruits in Debose, Jelani Jenkins and Gary Brown. Debose was by far the elite play maker the Gators were looking for.
Having two dangerous slot receivers is something that Florida's never had before. When both are on the field what side do you look for?
Have to love Auburn's offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn, he says coaches will run one reverse gain 18 yards and never run it again that game. This is something that has puzzled this man for more than 20 years.
Malzahn says he'll run a reverse five or six more times until the other team stops it. FSU used to run several a game, can you imagine things like a reverse or double reverse with Rainey and Debose? Find what works and take a page from Malzahn's book to keep doing it till they find a way to stop it.
Or imagine having Brantley option to the left, flanked left Deonte Thompson runs a flag, Rainey in the slot runs a post, Jeff Demps the pitch, and Jordan Reed the trail 'H' back. Brantley could throw to Thompson or pitch it in or out or stop and hit Rainey if he breaks open. All that speed is seriously nasty.
Brantley has the quick release, the ability to read defenses, pinpoint accuracy and to top all of that off he throws a very catchable ball. Brantley's ability to locate the open receiver and get rid of the ball quickly should lover the sack total and INT totals.
Lowered negative plays and being in Meyer's system patiently waiting for his turn you have to think that Meyer is going to reward him as the season unfolds.
Look for Brantley to complete 66% of his passes, he'll throw it close to 370 times and complete close to 247, he'll have over 3,000 yards, 33 TDs with no more than 8 INTs. and believe it or not he end up with around six carries a game, most of them won't be planned. Brantley will be sacked around 15 times and end up with a 162.24 QB rating.
( 8.4 X 3100 Yds + 330 X 33 TDs + 100 X 247 Comp - 200 X 8 INT ) / 370 Att
26040 + 10890 + 24700 - 1600 / 370 = 162.24 quarterback rating...
A 162.24 quarterback rating is not too much to expect from Brantley. Tim Tebow as a true sophomore and junior had ratings just over 172. Now he did pose more difficult issues for the defense but he also wasn't efficient at getting the ball out on time, he worked on that his entire career at Florida. Brantley won't have to work on that.
This man expects Brantley to hit 162, in fact it's highly likely that he will surpass it. If he has that kind of season Florida will be in very good shape and his receivers will love him.
Look for Thompson to have close to 60 catches, Rainey 51, Moore 41, Debose 40, Reed 34, Demps 23, Williams 23, Dunkley 20....
Brantley won't be a Tim Tebow, he doesn't have to be. But he will spread the ball all over the field, Meyer's offense is to find those creases in the defense then get the ball to athletes who can exploit them. With Brantley's knack to get the ball out quickly and to the receiver on time look for the Spread to be alive and well this fall.
It should be a nasty season offensively speaking. We will spread it and they will dread it...
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