But how have the Gators responded the year after a great defense when they lose a boat load of starters. A look back at 2007 might give a clue as to what to expect in 2010. Now that team didn't have the advantage of the recruiting depth Urban Meyer has so tirelessly worked to develop at Florida so this man certainly expects more. But that will be gotten into shortly...
Those defenses.... note - 2010 stats are projected...
(Rec - record W-L... Tot - total defense rank... YPG - yards per game allowed... ScR - scoring ranking... PPG - points allowed per game... TOR - turnover ranking... TOM - turnover margin)
| Team | Rec | Tot | YPG | ScR | PPG | TOR | TOM |
| 2010 UM* | 13-1 | 13 | 303 | 12 | 14.8 | 21 | .64 |
| 2009 UM | 13-1 | 4 | 252 | 4 | 12.4 | 24 | .50 |
| 2008 UM | 13-1 | 9 | 285 | 4 | 12.9 | 2 | 1.57 |
| 2007 UM | 9-4 | 41 | 364 | 46 | 25.5 | 32 | .38 |
| 2006 UM | 13-1 | 6 | 255 | 6 | 13.5 | 37 | .36 |
| 2005 UM | 9-3 | 9 | 299 | 18 | 18.8 | 3 | 1.50 |
| 2004 RZ | 7-5 | 42 | 345 | 31 | 21.1 | 40 | .33 |
| 2003 RZ | 8-5 | 51 | 367 | 28 | 20.8 | 25 | .54 |
| 2002 RZ | 8-5 | 25 | 325 | 31 | 21.5 | 91 | -.69 |
| 2001 SS | 11-2 | 9 | 290 | 4 | 14.1 | 79 | -.36 |
| 2000 SS | 10-2 | 42 | 346 | 29 | 19.7 | 3 | 1.58 |
You can look back at these stats and they tell the stories. In 2001 Steve Spurrier's last season the -.36 in turnover margin cost Florida the Auburn game five turnovers to two, the Gators lost the game in the forth quarter allowing Auburn to score 13 points to come back and win it 23-20. They won the turnover battle against Tennessee three to one but the Gators were routed on the ground for 242 yards on 31 carries. A win in either game puts the '01 Gators in the National Championship game.
Still looking back the 2000 team under Spurrier wasn't as talented as 2001 yet managed to ball hawk their way to a 10-2 and SEC Championship season with an outstanding turnover margin of + 1.58 per game. It wasn't a strong defense allowing 346 yards per game but it was one of those opportunistic defenses people love to talk about, they made plays.
The Ron Zook years were nothing but consistent. The minus turnover margin in 2002 of -.36 helped set the stage to sour his coaching debut. That can be attributed to Rex Grossman's horrible season where he chunked up 22 TDs and 17 INTs.
Florida suffered their two worst home losses in 20 years losing the second game of the season to Miami 41-16 and the seventh 36-7 to LSU. LSU Grossman pitched up four INTs, againts Miami the Gators actually won the turnover battle three INTs to two. To be fair Miami still had a lot of talent.
As it was Coach Zooks teams over his three seasons at Florida averaged +.06 turnovers per game. That isn't Gator football where you have half your season against teams you completely outclass athletically. His teams allowed an average of 21.1 points per game.
Without pointing fingers everyone would agree that Urban Meyer brought a lot of discipline and toughness to Florida. During his tenure at Florida his teams have enjoyed an average of +.86 per game turnover margin. That's amazing football, and it's not just a defensive stat, that's a team stat of taking care of the football.
Meyer's defenses have been stout they have allowed an average of 16.6 points per game over his five years at UF. Meyer has recruited extremely well the fruits of that labor is what's in question for 2010, will Florida reload on defense or will they have a toothing OJT season.
Florida only returned two starters in 2007 - SS Tony Joiner and DE Derrick Harvey. The defense was gutted with four juniors leaving early for the NFL draft - Reggie Nelson, Ryan Smith, Brandon Siler and Jarvis Moss along with seniors Earl Everett, Reggie Lewis, DL Ray McDonald and Joe Cohen.
The 2007 defense was gutted in much the say way the 2009 defense was but it just wasn't as deep - Carlos Dunlap, Jermaine Cunningham, Brandon Spikes, Ryan Stamper, Joe Haden and Major Wright.
Again the 2007 recruiting class was heavy with athletes who were a major part of the success in 2009. Ahmad Black, Carlos Dunlap, Lorenzo Edwards, Chaz Henry, Brandon Hicks, Duke Lemmens, Justin Trattou, and Major Wright. Top guys who didn't work out were Torrey Davis, John Brown and Jerimy Finch - unfortunately that's normal attrition.
Urban Meyer has a super/huge 2010 class - Chris Martin must redshirt, Darrin Kitchens, Michael Taylor, Ronald Powell, Sharrif Floyd, Matt Elam, Dominique Easley, Cody Riggs, Joshua Shaw, Lynden Trail, Neiron Ball, Jordan Haden, Jaylen Watkins, Gideon Ajabe, Jonathan Dowling.
This season you have a team coming off of two 13-1 seasons, three in the past four years and two National Championships. In 2007 they had the one excellent season after four unremarkable years. Much will need to be passed onto this new band of Gators, tradition - pride - expecting to win should already be there.
First of all you have to look at the over all strength of the team. Offensively Florida is going to be very good. A lot will be told in the first few games how much the coaches will open it up this season, that depends on so much but this team looks to have the ability to score a lot of points in 2010. Special teams should be solid, a lot of team speed and athleticism to go along with two proven kickers in Chaz Henry and Caleb Sturgis, Chris Rainey should be awesome as a return man as long as he remains healthy.
DEFENSIVE LINE - In 2010 Florida will be far superior to the defensive line in '07. Derrick Harvey and a sophomore Jermaine Cunningham were the starters. Cunningham was still working on his weight, the back up DE was Lawrence Marsh. Dunlap was a freshman and made some things happen, seven tackles, one sack, one pass deflection, two tackles for a loss. Cunningham had a great season he had 64 tackles, 12 tackles for a loss and 6.5 sacks. The DTs were journeyman types at best, Javier Estopinan was good but couldn't stay healthy, Brandon Antwine was listed as 5-11, 265, with seniors Clint McMillan and Lutrell Alford.
This season the Gators are superior on the inside, no need listing the players Florida is very deep. Justin Trattou is absolutely solid and the word is William Green has put on more weight and is becoming a monster. Florida has a veteran backup in Duck Lemmens with a lot of very talented depth along with the big time freshmen on campus. Florida should be as good at DE but could be better, add in the interior and it all heavily favors the '10s.
LINEBACKER - Florida basically had four sophomore LBs for '07 - Spikes, Stamper, AJ Jones and Dustin Doe. This crew was young and they were playing behind a middle of the road defensive line for the SEC. In '10 you're looking at a much more veteran crew with seniors Brandon Hicks and AJ Jones, the highly talented Jelani Jenkins a redshirt freshman and Jon Bostic a sophomore. Florida will call on some freshmen to step up and provide depth but this crew if healthy will certainly be ahead of the '07s. First off their job will be easier playing behind a stronger DL and because of their experience level.
DEFENSIVE BACK - At corner the Gators were all over the place in '07 Markihe Anderson got in there Wondy Pierre-Louis ended up playing a lot. Joe Haden came to the rescue he just took over one corner. Tony Joiner returned at strong safety freshman Major Wright like Haden came to the rescue to play free safety. Now Wright had some growing pains that first season this secondary was not one of Florida's best, this was a transition group behind a so so defensive front and a group of very young linebackers. But they responded in 2008 to win a National Championship.
There is no comparison for the Gator secondary returning veterans in Black, Will Hill and Janoris Jenkins. They only have to find one corner from a large talented group. They've already found a backup safety in Matt Elam, he is who they thought he was.
There is no doubt the 2010 Gators will have so much more speed than 2007 it won't be funny. The depth this fall is higher and more talented than ever and it's on both sides of the ball.
One last thing before the final prediction. Compared to Florida this man doesn't respect a lot of football teams on the schedule. It's not that this man doesn't care for or root for many of the schools it is simply because they don't come near to the Gators talent level for this season.
At best it's a four game schedule...
game on....
Alabama - even, very good team with a great offense. rebuilding defense like the Gators will they just reload or will Bama be more like our 2007s?
LSU - very talented team weak at QB position, if they get that fixed they have to play in Gainesville.
highly unlikely....
Georgia - New QB, not a forth year junior like Florida is fielding, but their offensive is a veteran group, not sure about their defense.
FSU - OK I don't think they have a snowballs chance in hell of beating Florida this season, they just don't have the defense.
no way....
South Carolina - Their offensive line is horrible. QB is so so...
Tennessee - huge dip in talent level, no way they beat the Gators...
USF - Florida has the superior talent level
Kentucky - see above
With the offense and defense this man is projecting a 13-1 season. The Gators will win another National Championship in 2010, they will lose at Alabama then win the rematch in the SEC Championship game.
This is what the defense will need to do to achieve that goal. They won't need to be in the top ten in total defense but the top 15 would be an achievable goal, that would allow just over 300 yards per game. With the schedule they could improve on it depending on what they allow late in those gimme games. This is a good mark although you can be sure they're team goal is much higher.
The points per game is perhaps what's most important. Anything around 12 is a championship type season, think that's a bit much to hope for. Something just below 15 puts them in the hunt, each point is two TDs allowed over a 14 game season.
| Team | Rec | Tot | YPG | ScR | PPG | TOR | TOM |
| 2010 UM | 13-1 | 13 | 303 | 12 | 14.8 | 21 | .64 |
As far as a turnover margin, if you have a strong offense it would seem less likely it would come into play unless you let it get out of control on one or two games to kill a season. A reason for a coach like Urban Meyer to put so much emphasis on management of the football each and every game.
A strong season is anything greater than a +1. They've won big with +.38 or so. A +.64 would be an awesome mark to shoot for, that would be nine more takeaways for the season than their opponents. It's not overly optimistic, just a bit below Meyer's average so far.
Turnover margin is so important, a team stat that relies as much on the offense and special teams as it does the defensive. A guy like Reggie Nelson really helps, that's why Ahmad Black, Will Hill, and Matt Elam should add up to give Gator National a lot of warm fuzzies this season.
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