Hard to Understand Oklahoma to Pac-12

The University of Oklahoma Regents will meet Monday in a closed meeting to discuss the school's conference options. On the same day the University of Texas Regents will meet and discuss the future of the Big 12 conference. Texas representatives have been in Norman this past week trying to convince the Sooners to remain in the Big 12.

Baylor, Kansas, Kansas State, Missouri, Iowa State, and Oklahoma State will not waive the right to litigation if Texas A&M leaves the Big 12. R. Bowen Loftin, president of Texas A&M, says his school is being held hostage right now.

If Oklahoma leaves everything will fall apart.

What doesn't make a lot of sense is the travel. The US map below is color coded to illustrate the three largest conferences to Oklahoma. In blue - the SEC, green - Big 10, yellow - Pac 12, and Oklahoma is orange.

From Normal Oklahoma in miles...

SEC
235 - Fayetteville, Arkansas
358 - College Station, Texas (when, not if A&M joins the SEC)
552 - Oxford, Mississippi
629 - Baton Rouge, Louisiana
647 - Starkville, Mississippi
691 - Nashville, Tennessee
706 - Tuscaloosa, Alabama
822 - Auburn, Alabama
851 - Lexington, Kentucky
868 - Knoxville, Tennessee
931 - Athens, Georgia
1071 - Columbia, South Carolina
1192 - Gainesville, Florida

734 - Average travel to SEC Schools

Pac 12

715 - Boulder, Colorado
1012 - Tucson, Arizona
1036 - Tempe, Arizona
1251 - Salt Lake City, Utah
1350 - Los Angeles, California (USC, Cal)
1630 - Stanford, California
1646 - Berkeley, California
1839 - Pullman, Washington
1961 - Eugene, Oregon
2019 - Seattle, Washington
2028 - Corvallis, Oregon

1486 - Average travel to Pac 12 Schools

Nothing is really close, it's interesting that over half the schools in the SEC, counting A&M, are closer to Oklahoma than the second nearest Pac 12 school at Tucson, the University of Arizona. The average is almost exactly double the distance to Pac 12 schools, 1486 miles, at the SEC schools 734.

Of course Oklahoma will fly whether they end up in the SEC or Pac 12. That's every sport and it will be double the air time. Not a piece of cake.

Even though there is plenty of travel ahead for the Oklahoma speculation by just about everyone has Sooners looking West where there are no shortage of good reasons to do so. Bob Stoops brand of football is a better fit in the Pac 12 than the SEC. The Pac 12 is well known as a passing conference with most of the best throwing quarterbacks in the country.

The SEC is more like a Texas, Nebraska or an Ohio State, it's a power league where you better be able to run the football and play strong defense. Not saying Oklahoma can't do that and couldn't adapt to the SEC.

Oklahoma State would be a great fit with the Pac 12 offensive style of play if the much rumored package deal of OU and OSU comes into play.

It's great for the Pac 12, they will help the West Coast teams get more appeal when they travel to Central USA. Kickoffs at 3:30pm EST are practical giving the East Coast fans more opportunities to watch. Of course some of the Sooner games on the West Coast would be too late for prime time on the Eastern side of the US.

Not only will joining the Pac 12 help the Oklahoma schools recruit California and the West Coast, playing in Oklahoma will hep the Pac 12 schools get a stronger presence in the state of Texas. Especially with the super conferences looming there will be some schools in the Lone Star state left out. Many recruits may look to out of state options where there will be a greater chance of national TV coverage.

Of course the SEC will be an option for those recruits when Oklahoma opts for anywhere, law suits won't work if the conference falls apart. Texas A&M would give the SEC a better shot at Texas recruits.

The flip side is if Oklahoma were to opt for the SEC they would have more appeal to rich areas like the state of Florida, Georgia and South Carolina.

It has been written that Oklahoma doesn't like the perception that they're some sort of puppet with Texas pulling their strings. Taking any step out of the Big 12 will change this national image.

Oklahoma State is looked upon more as a partner to Oklahoma than a tag-a-long. Besides neither of the Oklahoma schools have a huge private TV contract to worry about losing.

Looking for stability the Pac 10 has been together a long time, since 1915, they league started small with four teams (Cal, Washington, Oregon and Oregon State)and continued to add teams.

Stability is the SEC established in 1932 with 13 teams, 10 of the charter members are still in the conference (Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Tennessee, Vanderbilt). The SEC expanded to 12 teams back in 1991 with Arkansas and South Carolina, it's mind boggling to think those two schools are entering their 21st year in the conference. One could actually argue there is more stability in the SEC looking at those ten charter members.

In the end if Oklahoma joins the Pac 12 as many think they will, Coach Stoops won't be that happy because it will involve another conference championship game. But that should be OK for a while with USC's probation setbacks Oklahoma should battle Oregon for dominance of the league.

If Oklahoma were to surprise everyone and join the SEC, they will battle for the league title against the likes of LSU, Alabama, Florida and say a South Carolina or perhaps Tennessee and Auburn when they rebuild.

The SEC would love to have them.

What to Expect - Florida's 2010 Defense

If you want to compare great defenses that's fine but it would be unfair to these 2010 Gators. Two of Florida's best defenses have recently been fielded the 2006 National Championship team and the 2009 team with the same record, 2008 wasn't shabby either with their amazing turnover margin of +1.57.

But how have the Gators responded the year after a great defense when they lose a boat load of starters. A look back at 2007 might give a clue as to what to expect in 2010. Now that team didn't have the advantage of the recruiting depth Urban Meyer has so tirelessly worked to develop at Florida so this man certainly expects more. But that will be gotten into shortly...

Those defenses.... note - 2010 stats are projected...

(Rec - record W-L... Tot - total defense rank... YPG - yards per game allowed... ScR - scoring ranking... PPG - points allowed per game... TOR - turnover ranking... TOM - turnover margin)

Team	Rec	Tot	YPG	ScR	PPG	TOR	TOM
2010 UM*	13-1	13	303	12	14.8	21	.64
2009 UM	13-1	4	252	4	12.4	24	.50
2008 UM	13-1	9	285	4	12.9	2	1.57
2007 UM	9-4	41	364	46	25.5	32	.38
2006 UM	13-1	6	255	6	13.5	37	.36
2005 UM	9-3	9	299	18	18.8	3	1.50
2004 RZ	7-5	42	345	31	21.1	40	.33
2003 RZ	8-5	51	367	28	20.8	25	.54
2002 RZ	8-5	25	325	31	21.5	91	-.69
2001 SS	11-2	9	290	4	14.1	79	-.36
2000 SS	10-2	42	346	29	19.7	3	1.58

You can look back at these stats and they tell the stories. In 2001 Steve Spurrier's last season the -.36 in turnover margin cost Florida the Auburn game five turnovers to two, the Gators lost the game in the forth quarter allowing Auburn to score 13 points to come back and win it 23-20. They won the turnover battle against Tennessee three to one but the Gators were routed on the ground for 242 yards on 31 carries. A win in either game puts the '01 Gators in the National Championship game.

Still looking back the 2000 team under Spurrier wasn't as talented as 2001 yet managed to ball hawk their way to a 10-2 and SEC Championship season with an outstanding turnover margin of + 1.58 per game. It wasn't a strong defense allowing 346 yards per game but it was one of those opportunistic defenses people love to talk about, they made plays.

The Ron Zook years were nothing but consistent. The minus turnover margin in 2002 of -.36 helped set the stage to sour his coaching debut. That can be attributed to Rex Grossman's horrible season where he chunked up 22 TDs and 17 INTs.

Florida suffered their two worst home losses in 20 years losing the second game of the season to Miami 41-16 and the seventh 36-7 to LSU. LSU Grossman pitched up four INTs, againts Miami the Gators actually won the turnover battle three INTs to two. To be fair Miami still had a lot of talent.

As it was Coach Zooks teams over his three seasons at Florida averaged +.06 turnovers per game. That isn't Gator football where you have half your season against teams you completely outclass athletically. His teams allowed an average of 21.1 points per game.

Without pointing fingers everyone would agree that Urban Meyer brought a lot of discipline and toughness to Florida. During his tenure at Florida his teams have enjoyed an average of +.86 per game turnover margin. That's amazing football, and it's not just a defensive stat, that's a team stat of taking care of the football.

Meyer's defenses have been stout they have allowed an average of 16.6 points per game over his five years at UF. Meyer has recruited extremely well the fruits of that labor is what's in question for 2010, will Florida reload on defense or will they have a toothing OJT season.

Florida only returned two starters in 2007 - SS Tony Joiner and DE Derrick Harvey. The defense was gutted with four juniors leaving early for the NFL draft - Reggie Nelson, Ryan Smith, Brandon Siler and Jarvis Moss along with seniors Earl Everett, Reggie Lewis, DL Ray McDonald and Joe Cohen.

The 2007 defense was gutted in much the say way the 2009 defense was but it just wasn't as deep - Carlos Dunlap, Jermaine Cunningham, Brandon Spikes, Ryan Stamper, Joe Haden and Major Wright.

Again the 2007 recruiting class was heavy with athletes who were a major part of the success in 2009. Ahmad Black, Carlos Dunlap, Lorenzo Edwards, Chaz Henry, Brandon Hicks, Duke Lemmens, Justin Trattou, and Major Wright. Top guys who didn't work out were Torrey Davis, John Brown and Jerimy Finch - unfortunately that's normal attrition.

Urban Meyer has a super/huge 2010 class - Chris Martin must redshirt, Darrin Kitchens, Michael Taylor, Ronald Powell, Sharrif Floyd, Matt Elam, Dominique Easley, Cody Riggs, Joshua Shaw, Lynden Trail, Neiron Ball, Jordan Haden, Jaylen Watkins, Gideon Ajabe, Jonathan Dowling.

This season you have a team coming off of two 13-1 seasons, three in the past four years and two National Championships. In 2007 they had the one excellent season after four unremarkable years. Much will need to be passed onto this new band of Gators, tradition - pride - expecting to win should already be there.

First of all you have to look at the over all strength of the team. Offensively Florida is going to be very good. A lot will be told in the first few games how much the coaches will open it up this season, that depends on so much but this team looks to have the ability to score a lot of points in 2010. Special teams should be solid, a lot of team speed and athleticism to go along with two proven kickers in Chaz Henry and Caleb Sturgis, Chris Rainey should be awesome as a return man as long as he remains healthy.

DEFENSIVE LINE - In 2010 Florida will be far superior to the defensive line in '07. Derrick Harvey and a sophomore Jermaine Cunningham were the starters. Cunningham was still working on his weight, the back up DE was Lawrence Marsh. Dunlap was a freshman and made some things happen, seven tackles, one sack, one pass deflection, two tackles for a loss. Cunningham had a great season he had 64 tackles, 12 tackles for a loss and 6.5 sacks. The DTs were journeyman types at best, Javier Estopinan was good but couldn't stay healthy, Brandon Antwine was listed as 5-11, 265, with seniors Clint McMillan and Lutrell Alford.

This season the Gators are superior on the inside, no need listing the players Florida is very deep. Justin Trattou is absolutely solid and the word is William Green has put on more weight and is becoming a monster. Florida has a veteran backup in Duck Lemmens with a lot of very talented depth along with the big time freshmen on campus. Florida should be as good at DE but could be better, add in the interior and it all heavily favors the '10s.

LINEBACKER - Florida basically had four sophomore LBs for '07 - Spikes, Stamper, AJ Jones and Dustin Doe. This crew was young and they were playing behind a middle of the road defensive line for the SEC. In '10 you're looking at a much more veteran crew with seniors Brandon Hicks and AJ Jones, the highly talented Jelani Jenkins a redshirt freshman and Jon Bostic a sophomore. Florida will call on some freshmen to step up and provide depth but this crew if healthy will certainly be ahead of the '07s. First off their job will be easier playing behind a stronger DL and because of their experience level.

DEFENSIVE BACK - At corner the Gators were all over the place in '07 Markihe Anderson got in there Wondy Pierre-Louis ended up playing a lot. Joe Haden came to the rescue he just took over one corner. Tony Joiner returned at strong safety freshman Major Wright like Haden came to the rescue to play free safety. Now Wright had some growing pains that first season this secondary was not one of Florida's best, this was a transition group behind a so so defensive front and a group of very young linebackers. But they responded in 2008 to win a National Championship.

There is no comparison for the Gator secondary returning veterans in Black, Will Hill and Janoris Jenkins. They only have to find one corner from a large talented group. They've already found a backup safety in Matt Elam, he is who they thought he was.

There is no doubt the 2010 Gators will have so much more speed than 2007 it won't be funny. The depth this fall is higher and more talented than ever and it's on both sides of the ball.

One last thing before the final prediction. Compared to Florida this man doesn't respect a lot of football teams on the schedule. It's not that this man doesn't care for or root for many of the schools it is simply because they don't come near to the Gators talent level for this season.

At best it's a four game schedule...

game on....
Alabama - even, very good team with a great offense. rebuilding defense like the Gators will they just reload or will Bama be more like our 2007s?
LSU - very talented team weak at QB position, if they get that fixed they have to play in Gainesville.

highly unlikely....
Georgia - New QB, not a forth year junior like Florida is fielding, but their offensive is a veteran group, not sure about their defense.
FSU - OK I don't think they have a snowballs chance in hell of beating Florida this season, they just don't have the defense.

no way....
South Carolina - Their offensive line is horrible. QB is so so...
Tennessee - huge dip in talent level, no way they beat the Gators...
USF - Florida has the superior talent level
Kentucky - see above

With the offense and defense this man is projecting a 13-1 season. The Gators will win another National Championship in 2010, they will lose at Alabama then win the rematch in the SEC Championship game.

This is what the defense will need to do to achieve that goal. They won't need to be in the top ten in total defense but the top 15 would be an achievable goal, that would allow just over 300 yards per game. With the schedule they could improve on it depending on what they allow late in those gimme games. This is a good mark although you can be sure they're team goal is much higher.

The points per game is perhaps what's most important. Anything around 12 is a championship type season, think that's a bit much to hope for. Something just below 15 puts them in the hunt, each point is two TDs allowed over a 14 game season.

Team	Rec	Tot	YPG	ScR	PPG	TOR	TOM
2010 UM	13-1	13	303	12	14.8	21	.64

As far as a turnover margin, if you have a strong offense it would seem less likely it would come into play unless you let it get out of control on one or two games to kill a season. A reason for a coach like Urban Meyer to put so much emphasis on management of the football each and every game.

A strong season is anything greater than a +1. They've won big with +.38 or so. A +.64 would be an awesome mark to shoot for, that would be nine more takeaways for the season than their opponents. It's not overly optimistic, just a bit below Meyer's average so far.

Turnover margin is so important, a team stat that relies as much on the offense and special teams as it does the defensive. A guy like Reggie Nelson really helps, that's why Ahmad Black, Will Hill, and Matt Elam should add up to give Gator National a lot of warm fuzzies this season.

Don't Expect the Spread to Slow Down at Florida

In 2010 don't expect the Spread to be Dead at Florida.

Many say expect 2010 to be more like 2006 for the Florida Gators. If Florida's QB for 2010 John Brantley has stats similar to Chris Leak's 2006 stats it could be a disappointing season.

In 2006 the Gators had a great defense, ball control is a cornerstone of Urban Meyer football but that year it was the Commandment of the season.

In 2006 Leak had his best season with a QB rating of 145, in comparison Tim Tebow had ratings of 172, 172 and 164 in 2009. Leak in '06 had his best completion percentage 63.6% he had 23 TDs and 13 INTs. In his career Tebow averaged 66.3%, he had 88 TD passes and 16 INTs.

In no season did Tebow have more than six INTs.

Leak carried the ball a lot in Urban Meyer's first two seasons at Florida, certainly a lot more than he cared too. He rushed the ball 105 times in 2005 and 77 times in 2006. He only had 89 yards and 8 TDs in 2005 then 30 yards and 3 TDs in 2006. There weren't that many designed runs and sack yardage makes it difficult to judge Leak's production in this area.

Leak was aided by the freshman Tebow back in 2006. Tebow had 89 carries for 469 yards and 8 TDs.

In 2006 the Gators had a great freshman in Percy Harvin, Andre Caldwell was a junior, Dallas Baker and Jemalle Cornelius were seniors, Cornelius Ingram had a good year, Billy Latsko and DeShawn Wynn filled out the backfield. Drew Miller and Phil Trautwein were the top offensive linemen that season.

Florida certainly had the weapons back in 2006 but they relied on the defense - Jarvis Moss and Derrick Harvey at ends, Ray McDonald, Steven Harris and Joe Cohen inside, Earl Everett, Brandon Siler, Brandon Spikes, Ryan Stamper and Brain Crum at linebacker, Reggie Lews and Ryan Smith at corner, Tony Joiner and Reggie Lewis back at safety.

It was a great defense that only allowed 86 first half points in 14 games. They averaged 29.8 points a game against 13.5 allowed a victory margin of over two TDs, there was no need to push the offense.

But that need might be there for 2010.

Enter John Brantley a fourth year junior who according to Gator football strength and conditioning coach Mickey Marotti is a grown-ass man. Young John certainly wasn't when he arrived at Florida a thin 6-3, 192 pounds, he's put on 20 pounds of Marotti.

Brantley could be complemented by a gifted freshman in Trey Burton, at 6-2, 219 he's an excellent runner with rapidly improving passing skills over the spring. Burton could come in and do what Tebow did in certain situations and throws the ball well enough for the coaching staff to give him the go within his package.

But don't expect a repeat of Chris Leak in 2006 that simply won't be acceptable for 2010.

Leak was sacked 23 times in 2006, Tebow was sacked 15 times in '08 but doubled that to 29 in '09. With Florida's teething but very talented defense 13 INTs and 25 sacks will be a disaster to Meyer's overall game plan for a successful season in 2010.

It's doubtful that Meyer will hold back the offense with Brantley's passing skills and as talented a group of young receivers the Gators have had.

Throw in as good an offensive line Florida's seen in many years. Three players made the 2010 SEC Media Days Preseason All-SEC Football Team - 1St Team - Mike Pouncey OC, 2nd Team - Carl Johnson OG and Marcus Gilbert OT. All seniors, not mentioned is Xavier Nixon the returning starter at LT, a true sophomore.

Florida has at least four talented players with loads of experience for that fifth spot, Meyer mentioned in SEC media days that Matt Patchan could end up there along with James Wilson or Maruice Hurt, he also mentioned Jon Halipanio as young guy coming on strong and being in the mix.

This line on paper appears much stronger than the 2006 group.

With fine experience and depth at running back it makes sense for the Gators to be an attacking team this fall with the expected high level special teams play look for Florida's defense to be put into good positions the majority of the season.

What will help Brantley is one thing the Gators haven't had since Urban Meyer has been the coach. They will have two slot receivers with tremendous skill levels. Chris Rainey is a head scratcher, the question is why wasn't he moved to this Percy Harvin position in 2009? He's a baller with elusive open field skills off the charts.

Oh well Rainey's there now and Andre Debose the guy recruited to take Harvin's spot is now healthy. Debose was the gem of the 2009 recruiting class but ended up redshirting due to hamstring issues. Back in 2009 both Rivals and Scout gave Florida three 5-star recruits in Debose, Jelani Jenkins and Gary Brown. Debose was by far the elite play maker the Gators were looking for.

Having two dangerous slot receivers is something that Florida's never had before. When both are on the field what side do you look for?

Have to love Auburn's offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn, he says coaches will run one reverse gain 18 yards and never run it again that game. This is something that has puzzled this man for more than 20 years.

Malzahn says he'll run a reverse five or six more times until the other team stops it. FSU used to run several a game, can you imagine things like a reverse or double reverse with Rainey and Debose? Find what works and take a page from Malzahn's book to keep doing it till they find a way to stop it.

Or imagine having Brantley option to the left, flanked left Deonte Thompson runs a flag, Rainey in the slot runs a post, Jeff Demps the pitch, and Jordan Reed the trail 'H' back. Brantley could throw to Thompson or pitch it in or out or stop and hit Rainey if he breaks open. All that speed is seriously nasty.

Brantley has the quick release, the ability to read defenses, pinpoint accuracy and to top all of that off he throws a very catchable ball. Brantley's ability to locate the open receiver and get rid of the ball quickly should lover the sack total and INT totals.

Lowered negative plays and being in Meyer's system patiently waiting for his turn you have to think that Meyer is going to reward him as the season unfolds.

Look for Brantley to complete 66% of his passes, he'll throw it close to 370 times and complete close to 247, he'll have over 3,000 yards, 33 TDs with no more than 8 INTs. and believe it or not he end up with around six carries a game, most of them won't be planned. Brantley will be sacked around 15 times and end up with a 162.24 QB rating.

( 8.4 X 3100 Yds + 330 X 33 TDs + 100 X 247 Comp - 200 X 8 INT ) / 370 Att

26040 + 10890 + 24700 - 1600 / 370 = 162.24 quarterback rating...

A 162.24 quarterback rating is not too much to expect from Brantley. Tim Tebow as a true sophomore and junior had ratings just over 172. Now he did pose more difficult issues for the defense but he also wasn't efficient at getting the ball out on time, he worked on that his entire career at Florida. Brantley won't have to work on that.

This man expects Brantley to hit 162, in fact it's highly likely that he will surpass it. If he has that kind of season Florida will be in very good shape and his receivers will love him.

Look for Thompson to have close to 60 catches, Rainey 51, Moore 41, Debose 40, Reed 34, Demps 23, Williams 23, Dunkley 20....

Brantley won't be a Tim Tebow, he doesn't have to be. But he will spread the ball all over the field, Meyer's offense is to find those creases in the defense then get the ball to athletes who can exploit them. With Brantley's knack to get the ball out quickly and to the receiver on time look for the Spread to be alive and well this fall.

It should be a nasty season offensively speaking. We will spread it and they will dread it...