Hard to Understand Oklahoma to Pac-12

The University of Oklahoma Regents will meet Monday in a closed meeting to discuss the school's conference options. On the same day the University of Texas Regents will meet and discuss the future of the Big 12 conference. Texas representatives have been in Norman this past week trying to convince the Sooners to remain in the Big 12.

Baylor, Kansas, Kansas State, Missouri, Iowa State, and Oklahoma State will not waive the right to litigation if Texas A&M leaves the Big 12. R. Bowen Loftin, president of Texas A&M, says his school is being held hostage right now.

If Oklahoma leaves everything will fall apart.

What doesn't make a lot of sense is the travel. The US map below is color coded to illustrate the three largest conferences to Oklahoma. In blue - the SEC, green - Big 10, yellow - Pac 12, and Oklahoma is orange.

From Normal Oklahoma in miles...

SEC
235 - Fayetteville, Arkansas
358 - College Station, Texas (when, not if A&M joins the SEC)
552 - Oxford, Mississippi
629 - Baton Rouge, Louisiana
647 - Starkville, Mississippi
691 - Nashville, Tennessee
706 - Tuscaloosa, Alabama
822 - Auburn, Alabama
851 - Lexington, Kentucky
868 - Knoxville, Tennessee
931 - Athens, Georgia
1071 - Columbia, South Carolina
1192 - Gainesville, Florida

734 - Average travel to SEC Schools

Pac 12

715 - Boulder, Colorado
1012 - Tucson, Arizona
1036 - Tempe, Arizona
1251 - Salt Lake City, Utah
1350 - Los Angeles, California (USC, Cal)
1630 - Stanford, California
1646 - Berkeley, California
1839 - Pullman, Washington
1961 - Eugene, Oregon
2019 - Seattle, Washington
2028 - Corvallis, Oregon

1486 - Average travel to Pac 12 Schools

Nothing is really close, it's interesting that over half the schools in the SEC, counting A&M, are closer to Oklahoma than the second nearest Pac 12 school at Tucson, the University of Arizona. The average is almost exactly double the distance to Pac 12 schools, 1486 miles, at the SEC schools 734.

Of course Oklahoma will fly whether they end up in the SEC or Pac 12. That's every sport and it will be double the air time. Not a piece of cake.

Even though there is plenty of travel ahead for the Oklahoma speculation by just about everyone has Sooners looking West where there are no shortage of good reasons to do so. Bob Stoops brand of football is a better fit in the Pac 12 than the SEC. The Pac 12 is well known as a passing conference with most of the best throwing quarterbacks in the country.

The SEC is more like a Texas, Nebraska or an Ohio State, it's a power league where you better be able to run the football and play strong defense. Not saying Oklahoma can't do that and couldn't adapt to the SEC.

Oklahoma State would be a great fit with the Pac 12 offensive style of play if the much rumored package deal of OU and OSU comes into play.

It's great for the Pac 12, they will help the West Coast teams get more appeal when they travel to Central USA. Kickoffs at 3:30pm EST are practical giving the East Coast fans more opportunities to watch. Of course some of the Sooner games on the West Coast would be too late for prime time on the Eastern side of the US.

Not only will joining the Pac 12 help the Oklahoma schools recruit California and the West Coast, playing in Oklahoma will hep the Pac 12 schools get a stronger presence in the state of Texas. Especially with the super conferences looming there will be some schools in the Lone Star state left out. Many recruits may look to out of state options where there will be a greater chance of national TV coverage.

Of course the SEC will be an option for those recruits when Oklahoma opts for anywhere, law suits won't work if the conference falls apart. Texas A&M would give the SEC a better shot at Texas recruits.

The flip side is if Oklahoma were to opt for the SEC they would have more appeal to rich areas like the state of Florida, Georgia and South Carolina.

It has been written that Oklahoma doesn't like the perception that they're some sort of puppet with Texas pulling their strings. Taking any step out of the Big 12 will change this national image.

Oklahoma State is looked upon more as a partner to Oklahoma than a tag-a-long. Besides neither of the Oklahoma schools have a huge private TV contract to worry about losing.

Looking for stability the Pac 10 has been together a long time, since 1915, they league started small with four teams (Cal, Washington, Oregon and Oregon State)and continued to add teams.

Stability is the SEC established in 1932 with 13 teams, 10 of the charter members are still in the conference (Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Tennessee, Vanderbilt). The SEC expanded to 12 teams back in 1991 with Arkansas and South Carolina, it's mind boggling to think those two schools are entering their 21st year in the conference. One could actually argue there is more stability in the SEC looking at those ten charter members.

In the end if Oklahoma joins the Pac 12 as many think they will, Coach Stoops won't be that happy because it will involve another conference championship game. But that should be OK for a while with USC's probation setbacks Oklahoma should battle Oregon for dominance of the league.

If Oklahoma were to surprise everyone and join the SEC, they will battle for the league title against the likes of LSU, Alabama, Florida and say a South Carolina or perhaps Tennessee and Auburn when they rebuild.

The SEC would love to have them.

Return - College Football Today

Still have the desire to write about College Football so I'll do so here.

Today is going to be fun, see if Auburn can continue pulling games out of their hat. Of course Clemson isn't very good so the War Eagles could go to 3-0 without a lot of difficulty.

Questions why Auburn would hire Gene Chizik, boy am I eating those words. He's turning out to be a great football coach.

Thinking FSU is going to be awfully difficult to beat, like their defense but wonder if their QB is ready to win this level of football game. Oklahoma isn't that good against highly ranked foes, not sure they've beaten anyone soon. So it's a matter of which team implodes? I'm not sure who wins this one think it's too close to call.

Florida and Tennessee should be a fine football game. The Vols 6-6 QB Tyler Brey will have to have one heck of a day. Will Florida's defensive line begin to play up to their recruiting hype? The story of this game might well be Florida's defensive front vs the blocking of Tennessee.

One thing is for sure, Florida hasn't shown any blitz packages. There is a good side and bad side of that. You keep it secret, that's nice, but your guys don't get the opportunity to run these blitz schemes in front of 90,000 screaming fans.

Think Florida beats UT's offensive front and wins this game. If they don't look for 80+ points to be scored in this one. Don't think that happens but we'll see, Brey is very good, Florida doesn't rely on their QB to win this game like Tennessee does.

Have a great day today...

247 Sports

247 Sports is a new network beginning this fall with over 40 college football sites. It's unsure at this point whether Swampie will be joining 247 Sports, thought I was but haven't heard from them for a couple of weeks.

Florida's site named Gators 24/7 will open August 15th.

Franz Beard, and Justin Wells will burn the candle at both ends to bring you the latest news, we'll beat the bushes on the recruiting front and Swampie will ponder the furthest reaches of Gator football and the meaning of the Gator spirit along with any other duties Franz and Justin may pass this man's way.

It's a great crew with a professional organization, hope you join the team...

Chris Dunkley to the above arrived at Florida tipping the scales at 190 and nicely bulked up in the upper body. Word on the streets is he's wowing defensive backs and coaches with his ability to run crisp routes very quickly without losing any speed on the cuts. Photo from facebook...

Gator DE Johnie Church's Great Freshman Season

It can be done. Sure it's a lot to ask of a guy like Ronald Powell or Lynden Trail to come in as true freshmen and have a big season at defensive end in the SEC, but it has been done at Florida so who's to say those guys can't do it this year!

Once upon a time there was one defensive end at Florida. He was in his first year as a Gator and had a great season. Consider that he had 55 or his 61 total tackles over the last eight games of the season which happened to be the games he started. In those starts he averaged 6.9 tackles per game you figure that over 13 games played that season it was a horrid pace that would have totaled 90 tackles, that's all-American stuff.

Johnie Church played around 235 his freshman season, 1992, with the Gators, he was 6-3.

FRESHMAN STATS - 32 solo tackles, 29 assists, 61 total... 4 sacks, 4 tackles for a loss, 8 total tackles for loss, 1 pass deflection, 6 quarterback hurries, 1 forced fumble, 1 fumble recovery. Had 55 tackles in his eight starts, average of 6.9 per game. First career start against Auburn he had 10 tackles. Had 9 tackles, 1.5 quarterback sacks, and a forced hurry against South Carolina.

(RS - redshirted freshman year, TT - total tackles, freshman season total to senior season total from left to right.)

Name	RS	Years played	TT	TT	TT	TT
Johnie Church	-	1992, 93, 94, 95	61	29	20	30
Tim Newton*	-	1981, 82, 83, 84	46	54	79	77
Huey Richardson	-	1987, 88, 89, 90	26	68	79	58
Brad Culpepper	RS	1988, 89, 90, 91	25	60	64	82
Ellis Johnson	-	1991, 92, 93, 94	16	32	55	62
Kevin Carter	-	1981, 82, 83, 84	14	64	59	66
Reggie McGrew	RS	1996, 97, 98	39	26	41	-
Gerard Warren	RS	1998, 99, 00	27	52	76	-
Marcus Thomas	-	2003, 04, 05, 06	47	39	45	-
Ray McDonald	RS	2003, 04, 05, 06	54	39	8	36
Lawrence Marsh	RS	2007, 08, 09	5	28	8	-
Wilbur Marshall	-	1980, 81, 82, 83	0	121	123	95
David Little	-	1977, 78,79, 80	67	138	109	161

Johnie Church - College: Played at the University of Florida from 1992 to 1995... Was part of a distinguished senior class that won four consecutive Southeastern Conference Eastern Division championships, three straight SEC titles, and played in the school's first "national championship" game, the 1996 Fiesta Bowl against eventual national champion Nebraska...Started eight games as a true freshman in 1992...In that first season, he posted 61 tackles and was named a first-team Freshman All-American by USA Today and the Associated Press...Had a rough season in 1993; he was hampered by numerous injuries and notched just 29 tackles...Returned to health in 1994, playing in all 12 games as the Gators marched to the Sugar Bowl...Posted five tackles for losses and six quarterback hurries...Started in 10 out of 12 games as a senior, including the penultimate Fiesta Bowl encounter...Finished second on the team with nine quarterback hurries... Made 30 tackles...Had his biggest game of the season against Vanderbilt, posting a season-high 2.5 sacks and six tackles...

What to Expect - Florida's 2010 Defense

If you want to compare great defenses that's fine but it would be unfair to these 2010 Gators. Two of Florida's best defenses have recently been fielded the 2006 National Championship team and the 2009 team with the same record, 2008 wasn't shabby either with their amazing turnover margin of +1.57.

But how have the Gators responded the year after a great defense when they lose a boat load of starters. A look back at 2007 might give a clue as to what to expect in 2010. Now that team didn't have the advantage of the recruiting depth Urban Meyer has so tirelessly worked to develop at Florida so this man certainly expects more. But that will be gotten into shortly...

Those defenses.... note - 2010 stats are projected...

(Rec - record W-L... Tot - total defense rank... YPG - yards per game allowed... ScR - scoring ranking... PPG - points allowed per game... TOR - turnover ranking... TOM - turnover margin)

Team	Rec	Tot	YPG	ScR	PPG	TOR	TOM
2010 UM*	13-1	13	303	12	14.8	21	.64
2009 UM	13-1	4	252	4	12.4	24	.50
2008 UM	13-1	9	285	4	12.9	2	1.57
2007 UM	9-4	41	364	46	25.5	32	.38
2006 UM	13-1	6	255	6	13.5	37	.36
2005 UM	9-3	9	299	18	18.8	3	1.50
2004 RZ	7-5	42	345	31	21.1	40	.33
2003 RZ	8-5	51	367	28	20.8	25	.54
2002 RZ	8-5	25	325	31	21.5	91	-.69
2001 SS	11-2	9	290	4	14.1	79	-.36
2000 SS	10-2	42	346	29	19.7	3	1.58

You can look back at these stats and they tell the stories. In 2001 Steve Spurrier's last season the -.36 in turnover margin cost Florida the Auburn game five turnovers to two, the Gators lost the game in the forth quarter allowing Auburn to score 13 points to come back and win it 23-20. They won the turnover battle against Tennessee three to one but the Gators were routed on the ground for 242 yards on 31 carries. A win in either game puts the '01 Gators in the National Championship game.

Still looking back the 2000 team under Spurrier wasn't as talented as 2001 yet managed to ball hawk their way to a 10-2 and SEC Championship season with an outstanding turnover margin of + 1.58 per game. It wasn't a strong defense allowing 346 yards per game but it was one of those opportunistic defenses people love to talk about, they made plays.

The Ron Zook years were nothing but consistent. The minus turnover margin in 2002 of -.36 helped set the stage to sour his coaching debut. That can be attributed to Rex Grossman's horrible season where he chunked up 22 TDs and 17 INTs.

Florida suffered their two worst home losses in 20 years losing the second game of the season to Miami 41-16 and the seventh 36-7 to LSU. LSU Grossman pitched up four INTs, againts Miami the Gators actually won the turnover battle three INTs to two. To be fair Miami still had a lot of talent.

As it was Coach Zooks teams over his three seasons at Florida averaged +.06 turnovers per game. That isn't Gator football where you have half your season against teams you completely outclass athletically. His teams allowed an average of 21.1 points per game.

Without pointing fingers everyone would agree that Urban Meyer brought a lot of discipline and toughness to Florida. During his tenure at Florida his teams have enjoyed an average of +.86 per game turnover margin. That's amazing football, and it's not just a defensive stat, that's a team stat of taking care of the football.

Meyer's defenses have been stout they have allowed an average of 16.6 points per game over his five years at UF. Meyer has recruited extremely well the fruits of that labor is what's in question for 2010, will Florida reload on defense or will they have a toothing OJT season.

Florida only returned two starters in 2007 - SS Tony Joiner and DE Derrick Harvey. The defense was gutted with four juniors leaving early for the NFL draft - Reggie Nelson, Ryan Smith, Brandon Siler and Jarvis Moss along with seniors Earl Everett, Reggie Lewis, DL Ray McDonald and Joe Cohen.

The 2007 defense was gutted in much the say way the 2009 defense was but it just wasn't as deep - Carlos Dunlap, Jermaine Cunningham, Brandon Spikes, Ryan Stamper, Joe Haden and Major Wright.

Again the 2007 recruiting class was heavy with athletes who were a major part of the success in 2009. Ahmad Black, Carlos Dunlap, Lorenzo Edwards, Chaz Henry, Brandon Hicks, Duke Lemmens, Justin Trattou, and Major Wright. Top guys who didn't work out were Torrey Davis, John Brown and Jerimy Finch - unfortunately that's normal attrition.

Urban Meyer has a super/huge 2010 class - Chris Martin must redshirt, Darrin Kitchens, Michael Taylor, Ronald Powell, Sharrif Floyd, Matt Elam, Dominique Easley, Cody Riggs, Joshua Shaw, Lynden Trail, Neiron Ball, Jordan Haden, Jaylen Watkins, Gideon Ajabe, Jonathan Dowling.

This season you have a team coming off of two 13-1 seasons, three in the past four years and two National Championships. In 2007 they had the one excellent season after four unremarkable years. Much will need to be passed onto this new band of Gators, tradition - pride - expecting to win should already be there.

First of all you have to look at the over all strength of the team. Offensively Florida is going to be very good. A lot will be told in the first few games how much the coaches will open it up this season, that depends on so much but this team looks to have the ability to score a lot of points in 2010. Special teams should be solid, a lot of team speed and athleticism to go along with two proven kickers in Chaz Henry and Caleb Sturgis, Chris Rainey should be awesome as a return man as long as he remains healthy.

DEFENSIVE LINE - In 2010 Florida will be far superior to the defensive line in '07. Derrick Harvey and a sophomore Jermaine Cunningham were the starters. Cunningham was still working on his weight, the back up DE was Lawrence Marsh. Dunlap was a freshman and made some things happen, seven tackles, one sack, one pass deflection, two tackles for a loss. Cunningham had a great season he had 64 tackles, 12 tackles for a loss and 6.5 sacks. The DTs were journeyman types at best, Javier Estopinan was good but couldn't stay healthy, Brandon Antwine was listed as 5-11, 265, with seniors Clint McMillan and Lutrell Alford.

This season the Gators are superior on the inside, no need listing the players Florida is very deep. Justin Trattou is absolutely solid and the word is William Green has put on more weight and is becoming a monster. Florida has a veteran backup in Duck Lemmens with a lot of very talented depth along with the big time freshmen on campus. Florida should be as good at DE but could be better, add in the interior and it all heavily favors the '10s.

LINEBACKER - Florida basically had four sophomore LBs for '07 - Spikes, Stamper, AJ Jones and Dustin Doe. This crew was young and they were playing behind a middle of the road defensive line for the SEC. In '10 you're looking at a much more veteran crew with seniors Brandon Hicks and AJ Jones, the highly talented Jelani Jenkins a redshirt freshman and Jon Bostic a sophomore. Florida will call on some freshmen to step up and provide depth but this crew if healthy will certainly be ahead of the '07s. First off their job will be easier playing behind a stronger DL and because of their experience level.

DEFENSIVE BACK - At corner the Gators were all over the place in '07 Markihe Anderson got in there Wondy Pierre-Louis ended up playing a lot. Joe Haden came to the rescue he just took over one corner. Tony Joiner returned at strong safety freshman Major Wright like Haden came to the rescue to play free safety. Now Wright had some growing pains that first season this secondary was not one of Florida's best, this was a transition group behind a so so defensive front and a group of very young linebackers. But they responded in 2008 to win a National Championship.

There is no comparison for the Gator secondary returning veterans in Black, Will Hill and Janoris Jenkins. They only have to find one corner from a large talented group. They've already found a backup safety in Matt Elam, he is who they thought he was.

There is no doubt the 2010 Gators will have so much more speed than 2007 it won't be funny. The depth this fall is higher and more talented than ever and it's on both sides of the ball.

One last thing before the final prediction. Compared to Florida this man doesn't respect a lot of football teams on the schedule. It's not that this man doesn't care for or root for many of the schools it is simply because they don't come near to the Gators talent level for this season.

At best it's a four game schedule...

game on....
Alabama - even, very good team with a great offense. rebuilding defense like the Gators will they just reload or will Bama be more like our 2007s?
LSU - very talented team weak at QB position, if they get that fixed they have to play in Gainesville.

highly unlikely....
Georgia - New QB, not a forth year junior like Florida is fielding, but their offensive is a veteran group, not sure about their defense.
FSU - OK I don't think they have a snowballs chance in hell of beating Florida this season, they just don't have the defense.

no way....
South Carolina - Their offensive line is horrible. QB is so so...
Tennessee - huge dip in talent level, no way they beat the Gators...
USF - Florida has the superior talent level
Kentucky - see above

With the offense and defense this man is projecting a 13-1 season. The Gators will win another National Championship in 2010, they will lose at Alabama then win the rematch in the SEC Championship game.

This is what the defense will need to do to achieve that goal. They won't need to be in the top ten in total defense but the top 15 would be an achievable goal, that would allow just over 300 yards per game. With the schedule they could improve on it depending on what they allow late in those gimme games. This is a good mark although you can be sure they're team goal is much higher.

The points per game is perhaps what's most important. Anything around 12 is a championship type season, think that's a bit much to hope for. Something just below 15 puts them in the hunt, each point is two TDs allowed over a 14 game season.

Team	Rec	Tot	YPG	ScR	PPG	TOR	TOM
2010 UM	13-1	13	303	12	14.8	21	.64

As far as a turnover margin, if you have a strong offense it would seem less likely it would come into play unless you let it get out of control on one or two games to kill a season. A reason for a coach like Urban Meyer to put so much emphasis on management of the football each and every game.

A strong season is anything greater than a +1. They've won big with +.38 or so. A +.64 would be an awesome mark to shoot for, that would be nine more takeaways for the season than their opponents. It's not overly optimistic, just a bit below Meyer's average so far.

Turnover margin is so important, a team stat that relies as much on the offense and special teams as it does the defensive. A guy like Reggie Nelson really helps, that's why Ahmad Black, Will Hill, and Matt Elam should add up to give Gator National a lot of warm fuzzies this season.