Showing posts with label Swampie's Rumor Mill. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Swampie's Rumor Mill. Show all posts

Tuesday, August 10, 2010

After 44 Years Bobby Bowden will not be on the Sidelines...

Bobby Bowden was the coach at FSU for 34 years, his first 16 seasons FSU was an independent. After joining the ACC FSU went on to win the conference 11 of the first 12 seasons.

What is the most amazing feat is FSU finished in the top 5 in national rankings for 14 years, from 1987 to 2000. In that span FSU was ranked 4th and 5th by one service or the other three times. This mean that someone had FSU ranked 4th or higher in the country for those 14 consecutive seasons that included two concensus national championships in 1993 and 1999.

Below....
Wrote 'Bowden Should Quit' after the Florida - FSU game last season. Some strong points were made especially toward the end on the ACC vs SEC. This was prior to Bobby Bowden's announcement that he was standing down as FSU's football coach.

Right below is a comment I added to the post after seeing the FSU replay show the next day...

- - I watched the Sun Sports replay of the game this morning, Bobby Bowden was interviewed after the game and I swear it looked like he had been crying. His eyes were red, maybe that was it for him, he said he'd have to do some soul searching. Next season can't be appealing for him. - -


Bowden Should Quit.....


Swampie's Rumor Mill
August 29th, 2009

It shouldn't have come to this but the best thing Bobby Bowden can do is quit his job as the head coach of FSU. He wants to leave on his terms if he stays another year he will lose that opportunity.

FSU will push him out the door and all that he built will crumble. His run at Florida State will never crumble but the Seminole program has and will continue to do so.

Jimbo Fisher the famous coach in waiting hasn't done that much with FSU. He's developed a decent offense this season but everything the Seminoles did in this process has been wrong.

FSU has often been a trend setter like the Deion Rule or play to the Echo once again creates a first in college football. Although they didn't start the coach in waiting thing they dam sure finished it, no one can possibly think that's desirable now.

Gone for Fisher is that recruiting boom that usually comes with the hire of a new coach. Right now its same old same old which can't be very appealing. About all FSU has on defense is a linebacker who can run like hell and make tackles forty yards down field, something every sorry defensive team needs.

Who will coach Bowden be fooling next season, he won't have any input into what's going on, hell he may as well move a nice comfortable bed into his office and snooze most of the day away if he doesn't do that already. The man is 80, he looks good, he's had a wonderful career, he doesn't need this.

And FSU has proved they no longer deserve him.

He will think it over. He saw how far his football team was behind Florida yesterday. No amount of optimism can cause him to realistically think that can be made up in one season. FSU has some athletes but lack the horses.

Florida will be awesome again next season even if the Gators lose a small herd of juniors.

In the SEC this season there were only two top teams Alabama and Florida, then LSU, Ole Miss and six 7-5 teams. Yesterday two of those 7-5 teams South Carolina and Georgia beat the two teams headed for the ACC Championship game, Clemson and Georgia Tech.

FSU finished the 7th best team in the ACC at 6-6, 4-4 in the conference. Would a 9-to-10 win season next fall leave the program where Bowden can walk away in peace, especially if he had nothing what so ever to do with anything?

He can walk away now and hold his head high. Florida State betrayed him, he doesn't need to stick around like Ceasar and let the idiots up there spear him to death after next season. Et tu FSU!

Monday, August 9, 2010

Gators and Public Property

Fans can go before and after practice and see the team walking to and from the practice facility, until the day the UAA connects an underground walk way to the practice field.

Any sidewalk at the University of Florida is public property you, me, anyone has the right to be there. The people Urban Meyer's wants to beef up security for the autograph seekers, security will tell them to get out.

Something was mentioned about scumbags and internet people were tossed in that mix. I'm an internet person who has for many years followed the UAA's guidelines while others haven't so this man resents being lumped in that category.

Perhaps it was a misunderstanding so this man asked. Certainly they weren't going to ask someone on public property to leave.

(Please note the email concerning this and one other topic will not be posted, they other topic is inappropriate especially at this time of the season.)

From Steve McClain
Sports Information Director
Athletic Department
University of Florida

Richard:

Thanks for your note and your concerns.

What you have seen in various reports is a simple case of the media embellishing some quotes by Coach Meyer and not putting them in the proper perspective.

Rest assured, we are very aware that the players walk to practice on public property before they get to the private practice facility.

If you have encountered any of the football players walking to practice this year, you probably would say things are not much different until you get to the
entrance of the facility. There, you will see some protective gates to funnel the players into one entrance point and limit crowding by the gate. The main intent was to limit the number of autograph seekers who were bothering our student athletes daily and then turning around and selling various autographed items on the internet. I think we would all agree that practice had gotten out of hand.

Thanks again for sharing your concerns and please feel free to call or e-mail if you have any more questions or would like some additional information.

Go Gators!

.......................................................

Could an underground path to the practice facility be in Florida's future?

As far as this man knows nothing like that is in the works at this time but an underground walkway to the practice field can be done. Just connect the stadium to the O-Dome then you can go out the back of it a shorter open distance thus easier to secure.

Now I don't know if it's already connected or not. But it could be used for many other purposes.

A couple of names for it? They do you could call it the Florida Chunnel, or the Gator Chunnel.

Friday, August 6, 2010

Of the Gator

Gators #3 in Coaches Poll...

This shouldn't surprise you. Urban Meyer says he thinks this team can be really good and everyone else is beginning to believe too.

Las Vegas odds came out for the national champion in 2010, Alabama is 4 1/2 to 1, Ohio State is 5 to 1 and the Florida Gators are 8 to 1. Big difference is Florida isn't returning a starting QB, young John Brantley is getting a lot of preseason respect and love.

Rightfully so. The Gators are Loaded, this man picks them to go 13-1 and win a third national championship under Coach Meyer.

....................................................

Urban Meyer closes fall practices. I predicted five years ago Meyer was going to close fall practices and if he had his way he'd close spring practices. He's a me and my guys kind of guy.

I don't have any issues with it, but don't try and say it's for other reasons, come on.

Anyway called the UAA and they said they didn't have any history on fall practices open to the public under Urban Meyer, so I asked Franz Beard and this is what we came up with.

2005 - 5 days, think it was longer and they cut back to five
2006 - 5 days
2007 - 3 days
2008 - 3 days
2009 - 2 days
2010 - 0 days

And this is much like a Black Hole, zero being the event horizon where there is no turning back. People used to plan their vacations around fall practices a wonderful way to get revved up for the season.

Now if incoming freshmen don't get much opportunity to play their first fall you'll have to wait to see them in the spring, as long as Meyer allows that.

What was the line in that old commercial? 'Didn't your momma teach you how to share?'

For some reason that comes to mind when I'm thinking of Meyer closing practices.

....................................................

One of the BEST LINES by a Gator this fall Reported in the Gainesville, SUN...

Senior running back Emmanuel Moody said frosh Sharrif Floyd looks "chiseled" and "mean," making him one of the most intimidating youngsters of the group.

"Sharrif looked like he just came straight out of prison," Moody said.

....................................................

I've talked to some people, read a lot of comments and I've seen a lot of video. This team's mindset for this fall is about as good as this man has ever heard. They have a chip on their shoulders, they are close, they have great leadership in Mike Pouncey the Gators' Maximum Supreme Leader. Pouncey leads by Tebowian Methodology.

....................................................

Deonte Thompson has gained weight up to 205 and got faster running his fastest 40 time ever, a 4.22.

....................................................

This year it's Accountability and Development.

A reporter asked Meyer about this being a year with no Super-Stars on the team.

Meyer responded, "Oh there better be. Or we won't be very good. I just don't know who they are yet."

Thursday, August 5, 2010

247 Sports


247 Sports is a new network beginning this fall with over 40 college football sites. It's unsure at this point whether Swampie will be joining 247 Sports, thought I was but haven't heard from them for a couple of weeks.

Florida's site named Gators 24/7 will open August 15th.

Franz Beard, and Justin Wells will burn the candle at both ends to bring you the latest news, we'll beat the bushes on the recruiting front and Swampie will ponder the furthest reaches of Gator football and the meaning of the Gator spirit along with any other duties Franz and Justin may pass this man's way.

It's a great crew with a professional organization, hope you join the team...

Chris Dunkley to the above arrived at Florida tipping the scales at 190 and nicely bulked up in the upper body. Word on the streets is he's wowing defensive backs and coaches with his ability to run crisp routes very quickly without losing any speed on the cuts. Photo from facebook...

Sunday, August 1, 2010

The Forgotten Gator Class of 2008

Meyer talks about the 2008 recruiting class in the YouTube video below. Several of those recruits will be counted on heavily this fall, as many as eight could end up being starters.



(* - stars ranking in recruiting/ Exp - S - games started, P - games played in/ '10 - ? means player could become starter/ Production and Remarks - Ts - tackles, yds - yards, ypc yards per carry)

Name*
Exp
'10
Production / Remarks
Will Hill
5
5S
27P
Starter
90 Ts, 2 INT, 1.5 sacks
Omar Hunter
5
11S
17P
?
17 Ts, 2 for loss - should become a co-starter with Lawrence Marsh
Matt Patchan
5
15P
?
11g on defense, knee recovered will compete for spot on OL
Carol Moore
5
14P
Starter
184 yds 14 receptions 1 TD, took a redshirt 2009 has looked strong
Jeff Demps
4
17S
20P
Starter
1,359 yds 177 carries, 7.6 ypc, 14 TD, ran '10 fastest 100m in 9.96
Janoris Jenkins
4
25S 27P
Starter
77 Ts, 5 INTs, 17 pass breakups, started as a true freshman, boundary corner
William Green
4
1S
27P
Starter
19 Ts, 5 for loss, 1 sack, 1 blocked punt, looks up to 270 pounds, really bulked up
Lerentee McCray
4
11P
backup
10 Ts, moved LB to DE in '09, Meyer mentioned him as a possible contributor this fall
Omarius Hines
4
13P
2nd tm
172 yds, 14 receptions, still waiting to have break through season
Dee Finley4
10P
backup
10 Ts, special teams, moved S to LB, looking for a position to get on field 222 lbs
TJ Lawrence4
-
backup
special teams, good athlete who's rarely mentioned in WR talk
Earl Okine
4
5P
-
2 Ts, not sure where he ends up, a beast who seems to lake football talent
Jeremy Brown
4
-
?
hurt 2 yrs with chronic back issues, will compete with Moses Jenkins for field corner
Frankie Hammond4
11P
-
57 yds, 4 catches, 1 TD, lost scholarship over DUI can work his way back
Adrian Bushell
4
-
-
In Junior College, unclear here if he's going to try to make it back or gone for good
Brendan Beal
4
-
-
Transferred, his playing time looked bleak he had lots of fans pulling for him
Sam Robey
3
13P
2nd Tm
not in the mix this year lots of seniors, in 2011 he's the starting center
TJ Pridemore
3
15P
FB
spot player getting on the field, getting playing time at fullback
David Young3
14P
backup
3.23 GPA Parks and Recreation, working on it
Troy Epps3
-
-
JuCo who just didn't contribute
Caleb Sturgis2
-
Starter
22-30 FG, 44-47 PAT, 56 yd FG vs UGa was longest in the SEC last season
Byran Jones
2
-
-
Not on 2010 Roster, left team?


This could be a forgotten class with no quarterback and plenty still trying to complete for playing time. But this class gave the Gators
Starter-Janoris Jenkins a two-year starter at corner...
Starter-Will Hill the starter this fall at safety...
Starter-Jeff Demps has over 1,350 yards in rushing and 14 TDs...
Starter-William Green at 270 is expected to fill a huge role for the Gators this fall.
Starter-Carl Moore redshirted in 2009 will be relied on heavily at receiver.
Starter-Caleb Sturgis is a big time kicker with a very strong leg
Co-Starter-Omar Hunter needed a year to make the transition.
Could Start-Jeremy Brown, if he gets over his back issues he could start, saw film on Moses Jenkins up against Jenoris Jenkins in an agility race, looked like a dead heat, had no idea Moses was that quick, it was eye opening...
Could Start-One of the fan's favorite Matt Patchan who's had injuries to slow his career as a Gator, he will be competing for a starting spot on the OL this fall, perhaps at guard.

Rotation - Frankie Hammond was pushing for lots of playing time this fall till his DUI
Starter 2011-Sam Robey is the center in waiting for 2011.

Lots of talent yet to make their mark like Dee Finley who moved to LB from safety, Omarius Hines and TJ Lawrence two receivers who are getting to that now or never point in their careers.

Monday, July 26, 2010

Gator DE Johnie Church's Great Freshman Season

It can be done. Sure it's a lot to ask of a guy like Ronald Powell or Lynden Trail to come in as true freshmen and have a big season at defensive end in the SEC, but it has been done at Florida so who's to say those guys can't do it this year!

Once upon a time there was one defensive end at Florida. He was in his first year as a Gator and had a great season. Consider that he had 55 or his 61 total tackles over the last eight games of the season which happened to be the games he started. In those starts he averaged 6.9 tackles per game you figure that over 13 games played that season it was a horrid pace that would have totaled 90 tackles, that's all-American stuff.

Johnie Church
played around 235 his freshman season, 1992, with the Gators, he was 6-3.

FRESHMAN STATS -
32 solo tackles, 29 assists, 61 total... 4 sacks, 4 tackles for a loss, 8 total tackles for loss, 1 pass deflection, 6 quarterback hurries, 1 forced fumble, 1 fumble recovery. Had 55 tackles in his eight starts, average of 6.9 per game. First career start against Auburn he had 10 tackles. Had 9 tackles, 1.5 quarterback sacks, and a forced hurry against South Carolina.

(RS - redshirted freshman year, TT - total tackles, freshman season total to senior season total from left to right.)

NameRSYears playedTTTTTTTT
Johnie Church-1992, 93, 94, 95
61292030
Tim Newton*-1981, 82, 83, 8446547977
Huey Richardson-1987, 88, 89, 9026687958
Brad CulpepperRS1988, 89, 90, 9125606482
Ellis Johnson-1991, 92, 93, 9416325562
Kevin Carter-1981, 82, 83, 8414645966
Reggie McGrewRS1996, 97, 98392641-
Gerard WarrenRS1998, 99, 00275276-
Marcus Thomas-2003, 04, 05, 06473945-
Ray McDonaldRS2003, 04, 05, 065439836
Lawrence MarshRS2007, 08, 095288-
Wilbur Marshall-1980, 81, 82, 83012112395
David Little-1977, 78,79, 8067138109161


Johnie Church - College: Played at the University of Florida from 1992 to 1995... Was part of a distinguished senior class that won four consecutive Southeastern Conference Eastern Division championships, three straight SEC titles, and played in the school's first "national championship" game, the 1996 Fiesta Bowl against eventual national champion Nebraska...Started eight games as a true freshman in 1992...In that first season, he posted 61 tackles and was named a first-team Freshman All-American by USA Today and the Associated Press...Had a rough season in 1993; he was hampered by numerous injuries and notched just 29 tackles...Returned to health in 1994, playing in all 12 games as the Gators marched to the Sugar Bowl...Posted five tackles for losses and six quarterback hurries...Started in 10 out of 12 games as a senior, including the penultimate Fiesta Bowl encounter...Finished second on the team with nine quarterback hurries... Made 30 tackles...Had his biggest game of the season against Vanderbilt, posting a season-high 2.5 sacks and six tackles...

Saturday, July 24, 2010

What to Expect - Florida's 2010 Defense

If you want to compare great defenses that's fine but it would be unfair to these 2010 Gators. Two of Florida's best defenses have recently been fielded the 2006 National Championship team and the 2009 team with the same record, 2008 wasn't shabby either with their amazing turnover margin of +1.57.

But how have the Gators responded the year after a great defense when they lose a boat load of starters. A look back at 2007 might give a clue as to what to expect in 2010. Now that team didn't have the advantage of the recruiting depth Urban Meyer has so tirelessly worked to develop at Florida so this man certainly expects more. But that will be gotten into shortly...

Those defenses.... note - 2010 stats are projected...

(Rec - record W-L... Tot - total defense rank... YPG - yards per game allowed... ScR - scoring ranking... PPG - points allowed per game... TOR - turnover ranking... TOM - turnover margin)
Team
Rec
Tot
YPG
ScR
PPG
TOR
TOM
2010 UM*
13-1
13
303
12
14.8
21
.64
2009 UM
13-1
4
252
4
12.4
24
.50
2008 UM
13-1
9
285
4
12.9
2
1.57
2007 UM
9-4
41
364
46
25.5
32
.38
2006 UM
13-1
6
255
6
13.5
37
.36
2005 UM
9-3
9
299
18
18.8
3
1.50
2004 RZ
7-5
42
345
31
21.1
40
.33
2003 RZ
8-5
51
367
28
20.8
25
.54
2002 RZ
8-5
25
325
31
21.5
91
-.69
2001 SS
11-2
9
290
4
14.1
79
-.36
2000 SS
10-2
42
346
29
19.7
3
1.58

You can look back at these stats and they tell the stories. In 2001 Steve Spurrier's last season the -.36 in turnover margin cost Florida the Auburn game five turnovers to two, the Gators lost the game in the forth quarter allowing Auburn to score 13 points to come back and win it 23-20. They won the turnover battle against Tennessee three to one but the Gators were routed on the ground for 242 yards on 31 carries. A win in either game puts the '01 Gators in the National Championship game.

Still looking back the 2000 team under Spurrier wasn't as talented as 2001 yet managed to ball hawk their way to a 10-2 and SEC Championship season with an outstanding turnover margin of + 1.58 per game. It wasn't a strong defense allowing 346 yards per game but it was one of those opportunistic defenses people love to talk about, they made plays.

The Ron Zook years were nothing but consistent. The minus turnover margin in 2002 of -.36 helped set the stage to sour his coaching debut. That can be attributed to Rex Grossman's horrible season where he chunked up 22 TDs and 17 INTs.

Florida suffered their two worst home losses in 20 years losing the second game of the season to Miami 41-16 and the seventh 36-7 to LSU. LSU Grossman pitched up four INTs, againts Miami the Gators actually won the turnover battle three INTs to two. To be fair Miami still had a lot of talent.

As it was Coach Zooks teams over his three seasons at Florida averaged +.06 turnovers per game. That isn't Gator football where you have half your season against teams you completely outclass athletically. His teams allowed an average of 21.1 points per game.

Without pointing fingers everyone would agree that Urban Meyer brought a lot of discipline and toughness to Florida. During his tenure at Florida his teams have enjoyed an average of +.86 per game turnover margin. That's amazing football, and it's not just a defensive stat, that's a team stat of taking care of the football.

Meyer's defenses have been stout they have allowed an average of 16.6 points per game over his five years at UF. Meyer has recruited extremely well the fruits of that labor is what's in question for 2010, will Florida reload on defense or will they have a toothing OJT season.

Florida only returned two starters in 2007 - SS Tony Joiner and DE Derrick Harvey. The defense was gutted with four juniors leaving early for the NFL draft - Reggie Nelson, Ryan Smith, Brandon Siler and Jarvis Moss along with seniors Earl Everett, Reggie Lewis, DL Ray McDonald and Joe Cohen.

The 2007 defense was gutted in much the say way the 2009 defense was but it just wasn't as deep - Carlos Dunlap, Jermaine Cunningham, Brandon Spikes, Ryan Stamper, Joe Haden and Major Wright.

Again the 2007 recruiting class was heavy with athletes who were a major part of the success in 2009. Ahmad Black, Carlos Dunlap, Lorenzo Edwards, Chaz Henry, Brandon Hicks, Duke Lemmens, Justin Trattou, and Major Wright. Top guys who didn't work out were Torrey Davis, John Brown and Jerimy Finch - unfortunately that's normal attrition.

Urban Meyer has a super/huge 2010 class - Chris Martin must redshirt, Darrin Kitchens, Michael Taylor, Ronald Powell, Sharrif Floyd, Matt Elam, Dominique Easley, Cody Riggs, Joshua Shaw, Lynden Trail, Neiron Ball, Jordan Haden, Jaylen Watkins, Gideon Ajabe, Jonathan Dowling.

This season you have a team coming off of two 13-1 seasons, three in the past four years and two National Championships. In 2007 they had the one excellent season after four unremarkable years. Much will need to be passed onto this new band of Gators, tradition - pride - expecting to win should already be there.

First of all you have to look at the over all strength of the team. Offensively Florida is going to be very good. A lot will be told in the first few games how much the coaches will open it up this season, that depends on so much but this team looks to have the ability to score a lot of points in 2010. Special teams should be solid, a lot of team speed and athleticism to go along with two proven kickers in Chaz Henry and Caleb Sturgis, Chris Rainey should be awesome as a return man as long as he remains healthy.

DEFENSIVE LINE - In 2010 Florida will be far superior to the defensive line in '07. Derrick Harvey and a sophomore Jermaine Cunningham were the starters. Cunningham was still working on his weight, the back up DE was Lawrence Marsh. Dunlap was a freshman and made some things happen, seven tackles, one sack, one pass deflection, two tackles for a loss. Cunningham had a great season he had 64 tackles, 12 tackles for a loss and 6.5 sacks. The DTs were journeyman types at best, Javier Estopinan was good but couldn't stay healthy, Brandon Antwine was listed as 5-11, 265, with seniors Clint McMillan and Lutrell Alford.

This season the Gators are superior on the inside, no need listing the players Florida is very deep. Justin Trattou is absolutely solid and the word is William Green has put on more weight and is becoming a monster. Florida has a veteran backup in Duck Lemmens with a lot of very talented depth along with the big time freshmen on campus. Florida should be as good at DE but could be better, add in the interior and it all heavily favors the '10s.

LINEBACKER - Florida basically had four sophomore LBs for '07 - Spikes, Stamper, AJ Jones and Dustin Doe. This crew was young and they were playing behind a middle of the road defensive line for the SEC. In '10 you're looking at a much more veteran crew with seniors Brandon Hicks and AJ Jones, the highly talented Jelani Jenkins a redshirt freshman and Jon Bostic a sophomore. Florida will call on some freshmen to step up and provide depth but this crew if healthy will certainly be ahead of the '07s. First off their job will be easier playing behind a stronger DL and because of their experience level.

DEFENSIVE BACK - At corner the Gators were all over the place in '07 Markihe Anderson got in there Wondy Pierre-Louis ended up playing a lot. Joe Haden came to the rescue he just took over one corner. Tony Joiner returned at strong safety freshman Major Wright like Haden came to the rescue to play free safety. Now Wright had some growing pains that first season this secondary was not one of Florida's best, this was a transition group behind a so so defensive front and a group of very young linebackers. But they responded in 2008 to win a National Championship.

There is no comparison for the Gator secondary returning veterans in Black, Will Hill and Janoris Jenkins. They only have to find one corner from a large talented group. They've already found a backup safety in Matt Elam, he is who they thought he was.

There is no doubt the 2010 Gators will have so much more speed than 2007 it won't be funny. The depth this fall is higher and more talented than ever and it's on both sides of the ball.

One last thing before the final prediction. Compared to Florida this man doesn't respect a lot of football teams on the schedule. It's not that this man doesn't care for or root for many of the schools it is simply because they don't come near to the Gators talent level for this season.

At best it's a four game schedule...

game on....
Alabama - even, very good team with a great offense. rebuilding defense like the Gators will they just reload or will Bama be more like our 2007s?
LSU - very talented team weak at QB position, if they get that fixed they have to play in Gainesville.

highly unlikely....

Georgia - New QB, not a forth year junior like Florida is fielding, but their offensive is a veteran group, not sure about their defense.
FSU - OK I don't think they have a snowballs chance in hell of beating Florida this season, they just don't have the defense.

no way....

South Carolina - Their offensive line is horrible. QB is so so...
Tennessee - huge dip in talent level, no way they beat the Gators...
USF - Florida has the superior talent level
Kentucky - see above

With the offense and defense this man is projecting a 13-1 season. The Gators will win another National Championship in 2010, they will lose at Alabama then win the rematch in the SEC Championship game.

This is what the defense will need to do to achieve that goal. They won't need to be in the top ten in total defense but the top 15 would be an achievable goal, that would allow just over 300 yards per game. With the schedule they could improve on it depending on what they allow late in those gimme games. This is a good mark although you can be sure they're team goal is much higher.

The points per game is perhaps what's most important. Anything around 12 is a championship type season, think that's a bit much to hope for. Something just below 15 puts them in the hunt, each point is two TDs allowed over a 14 game season.

Team
Rec
Tot
YPG
ScR
PPG
TOR
TOM
2010 UM
13-1
13
303
12
14.8
21
.64

As far as a turnover margin, if you have a strong offense it would seem less likely it would come into play unless you let it get out of control on one or two games to kill a season. A reason for a coach like Urban Meyer to put so much emphasis on management of the football each and every game.

A strong season is anything greater than a +1. They've won big with +.38 or so. A +.64 would be an awesome mark to shoot for, that would be nine more takeaways for the season than their opponents. It's not overly optimistic, just a bit below Meyer's average so far.

Turnover margin is so important, a team stat that relies as much on the offense and special teams as it does the defensive. A guy like Reggie Nelson really helps, that's why Ahmad Black, Will Hill, and Matt Elam should add up to give Gator National a lot of warm fuzzies this season.

Friday, July 23, 2010

Don't Expect the Spread to Slow Down at Florida

In 2010 don't expect the Spread to be Dead at Florida.

Many say expect 2010 to be more like 2006 for the Florida Gators. If Florida's QB for 2010 John Brantley has stats similar to Chris Leak's 2006 stats it could be a disappointing season.

In 2006 the Gators had a great defense, ball control is a cornerstone of Urban Meyer football but that year it was the Commandment of the season.

In 2006 Leak had his best season with a QB rating of 145, in comparison Tim Tebow had ratings of 172, 172 and 164 in 2009. Leak in '06 had his best completion percentage 63.6% he had 23 TDs and 13 INTs. In his career Tebow averaged 66.3%, he had 88 TD passes and 16 INTs.

In no season did Tebow have more than six INTs.

Leak carried the ball a lot in Urban Meyer's first two seasons at Florida, certainly a lot more than he cared too. He rushed the ball 105 times in 2005 and 77 times in 2006. He only had 89 yards and 8 TDs in 2005 then 30 yards and 3 TDs in 2006. There weren't that many designed runs and sack yardage makes it difficult to judge Leak's production in this area.

Leak was aided by the freshman Tebow back in 2006. Tebow had 89 carries for 469 yards and 8 TDs.

In 2006 the Gators had a great freshman in Percy Harvin, Andre Caldwell was a junior, Dallas Baker and Jemalle Cornelius were seniors, Cornelius Ingram had a good year, Billy Latsko and DeShawn Wynn filled out the backfield. Drew Miller and Phil Trautwein were the top offensive linemen that season.

Florida certainly had the weapons back in 2006 but they relied on the defense - Jarvis Moss and Derrick Harvey at ends, Ray McDonald, Steven Harris and Joe Cohen inside, Earl Everett, Brandon Siler, Brandon Spikes, Ryan Stamper and Brain Crum at linebacker, Reggie Lews and Ryan Smith at corner, Tony Joiner and Reggie Lewis back at safety.

It was a great defense that only allowed 86 first half points in 14 games. They averaged 29.8 points a game against 13.5 allowed a victory margin of over two TDs, there was no need to push the offense.

But that need might be there for 2010.

Enter John Brantley a fourth year junior who according to Gator football strength and conditioning coach Mickey Marotti is a grown-ass man. Young John certainly wasn't when he arrived at Florida a thin 6-3, 192 pounds, he's put on 20 pounds of Marotti.

Brantley could be complemented by a gifted freshman in Trey Burton, at 6-2, 219 he's an excellent runner with rapidly improving passing skills over the spring. Burton could come in and do what Tebow did in certain situations and throws the ball well enough for the coaching staff to give him the go within his package.

But don't expect a repeat of Chris Leak in 2006 that simply won't be acceptable for 2010.

Leak was sacked 23 times in 2006, Tebow was sacked 15 times in '08 but doubled that to 29 in '09. With Florida's teething but very talented defense 13 INTs and 25 sacks will be a disaster to Meyer's overall game plan for a successful season in 2010.

It's doubtful that Meyer will hold back the offense with Brantley's passing skills and as talented a group of young receivers the Gators have had.

Throw in as good an offensive line Florida's seen in many years. Three players made the 2010 SEC Media Days Preseason All-SEC Football Team - 1St Team - Mike Pouncey OC, 2nd Team - Carl Johnson OG and Marcus Gilbert OT. All seniors, not mentioned is Xavier Nixon the returning starter at LT, a true sophomore.

Florida has at least four talented players with loads of experience for that fifth spot, Meyer mentioned in SEC media days that Matt Patchan could end up there along with James Wilson or Maruice Hurt, he also mentioned Jon Halipanio as young guy coming on strong and being in the mix.

This line on paper appears much stronger than the 2006 group.

With fine experience and depth at running back it makes sense for the Gators to be an attacking team this fall with the expected high level special teams play look for Florida's defense to be put into good positions the majority of the season.

What will help Brantley is one thing the Gators haven't had since Urban Meyer has been the coach. They will have two slot receivers with tremendous skill levels. Chris Rainey is a head scratcher, the question is why wasn't he moved to this Percy Harvin position in 2009? He's a baller with elusive open field skills off the charts.

Oh well Rainey's there now and Andre Debose the guy recruited to take Harvin's spot is now healthy. Debose was the gem of the 2009 recruiting class but ended up redshirting due to hamstring issues. Back in 2009 both Rivals and Scout gave Florida three 5-star recruits in Debose, Jelani Jenkins and Gary Brown. Debose was by far the elite play maker the Gators were looking for.

Having two dangerous slot receivers is something that Florida's never had before. When both are on the field what side do you look for?

Have to love Auburn's offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn, he says coaches will run one reverse gain 18 yards and never run it again that game. This is something that has puzzled this man for more than 20 years.

Malzahn says he'll run a reverse five or six more times until the other team stops it. FSU used to run several a game, can you imagine things like a reverse or double reverse with Rainey and Debose? Find what works and take a page from Malzahn's book to keep doing it till they find a way to stop it.

Or imagine having Brantley option to the left, flanked left Deonte Thompson runs a flag, Rainey in the slot runs a post, Jeff Demps the pitch, and Jordan Reed the trail 'H' back. Brantley could throw to Thompson or pitch it in or out or stop and hit Rainey if he breaks open. All that speed is seriously nasty.

Brantley has the quick release, the ability to read defenses, pinpoint accuracy and to top all of that off he throws a very catchable ball. Brantley's ability to locate the open receiver and get rid of the ball quickly should lover the sack total and INT totals.

Lowered negative plays and being in Meyer's system patiently waiting for his turn you have to think that Meyer is going to reward him as the season unfolds.

Look for Brantley to complete 66% of his passes, he'll throw it close to 370 times and complete close to 247, he'll have over 3,000 yards, 33 TDs with no more than 8 INTs. and believe it or not he end up with around six carries a game, most of them won't be planned. Brantley will be sacked around 15 times and end up with a 162.24 QB rating.

Passer Rating_{NCAA} = {(8.4 \times YDS) + (330 \times TD) + (100 \times COMP) - (200 \times INT) \over ATT}


( 8.4 X 3100 Yds + 330 X 33 TDs + 100 X 247 Comp - 200 X 8 INT ) / 370 Att

26040 + 10890 + 24700 - 1600 / 370 = 162.24 quarterback rating...

A 162.24 quarterback rating is not too much to expect from Brantley. Tim Tebow as a true sophomore and junior had ratings just over 172. Now he did pose more difficult issues for the defense but he also wasn't efficient at getting the ball out on time, he worked on that his entire career at Florida. Brantley won't have to work on that.

This man expects Brantley to hit 162, in fact it's highly likely that he will surpass it. If he has that kind of season Florida will be in very good shape and his receivers will love him.

Look for Thompson to have close to 60 catches, Rainey 51, Moore 41, Debose 40, Reed 34, Demps 23, Williams 23, Dunkley 20....

Brantley won't be a Tim Tebow, he doesn't have to be. But he will spread the ball all over the field, Meyer's offense is to find those creases in the defense then get the ball to athletes who can exploit them. With Brantley's knack to get the ball out quickly and to the receiver on time look for the Spread to be alive and well this fall.

It should be a nasty season offensively speaking. We will spread it and they will dread it...

Thursday, July 8, 2010

Top Six Coaches in the SEC



Southeastern Conference football is the best of all. Top to bottom competition is difficult, many of the best known college coaches are in the fabled SEC where National Championships are expected.

At this time the SEC has two coaches who've won two National Championships in Urban Meyer and Nick Saban. Meyer won both of his at Florida while Saban won one at LSU and the other last year at Alabama.

Les Miles and Steve Spurrier have won titles, Miles at his current position with LSU and Spurrier when he was at Florida in 1996.

The SEC has two new head coaches both are in the SEC East, Tennessee brought in Derek Dooley and Kentucky promoted their coach in waiting Joker Phillips.

Over in the SEC West are two second year coaches Dan Mullens at Mississippi State and Auburn's Gene Chizik.

If you took the first, second and third year guys out of the mix you'd only have six coaches left to stack up. For this list we'll throw Houston Nutt and Bobby Petrino in and see what comes out.

1 - Urban Meyer - success at a high level is his business where ever he's been. Meyer is first because he's won two National Championships at the SEC school he's presently with and he's done this in five seasons, actually his first four. In those five seasons he's reeled off three 13-1 records, coached a Heisman Trophy winner and has been the dominant recruiter in the country. This pick can not be argued, well it can't be argued successfully.

Coach20052006200720082009Total
Urban Meyer9-313-19-413-113-157-10
Nick Saban--7-612-214-023-8
Les Miles11-211-212-28-59-451-15
Mark Richt10-39-411-210-38-548-17
Steve Spurrier7-58-56-67-57-535-26
Bobby Petrino---5-78-513-12
Houston Nutt---9-49-418-8
Bobby Johnson
5-64-85-77-62-1023-37
Gene Chizik
----
8-5
8-5
Dan Mullen
----
5-7
5-7
Joker Phillips
----
-
-
Derek Dooley
----
-
-


2 - Nick Saban - Saban takes second place not on just what he's done at Alabama, if so he'd be third in line here. But Saban has won two National Championships as mentioned above at LSU and Bama. Many people will argue that Les Miles won on Saban's talent at LSU but no one seems to argue that Saban won on Mike Shula's talent at Alabama.

Saban is an awesome recruiter and he has the Bama fans dancing in the clouds right now.

But the fact remains Saban was erratic at best in his five seasons at LSU, but two NCs is something few men achieve...

Saban at LSU
2000 - 8-4
2001 - 10-3
2002 - 8-5
2003 - 13-1
2004 - 9-4

3 - Les Miles - You can't explain away a National Championship in a coaches 3rd season. Urban Meyer won one in his second season at Florida and no sane rational thinking man believed that Zook would have been able to pull off the same feat in 2006.

Miles won his title by gutsy calls like the game against Florida going for forth down several times he helped will his team to victory that season.

Miles first three seasons at LSU compared to Saban's first three at Alabama...

coach
1st yr
2nd yr
3rd yr
total
NC
SEC
Les Miles
11-2
11-2
12-2
34-6
1
1
Nick Saban
7-6
12-2
14-0
33-8
1
1

Miles has recruited really well, he's had the misfortune lately of struggling with the QB position, the worst position at any level of football to be having troubles at.

4. Mark Richt - Richt edges out the old ball coach. You have to give a National Championship a lot of respect but Steve Spurrier has yet to write any history at South Carolina, Richt has at Georgia.

His overall record in nine seasons of 90-27 is simply outstanding. A 10-3 average, had Florida not been the dominating force in the SEC East Georgia under Richt would torn it up.

In his nine seasons he's won two SEC Titles in 2002 and 2005 and also finished tied for first in the SEC twice 2003 and 2007. Richt is an excellent recruiter he seems to attract some of the South's best quarterbacks, tight ends and wide receivers.

5. Steve Spurrier - Comes in fifth because in five seasons at South Carolina the best he's been able to do is 8-5. But he's had some great victories there and has been consistent in his recruiting.

Spurrier's 12-year run at Florida was for the history books, six SEC titles and another in his first season when the Gators weren't eligible to win it. Florida's first National Championship, those four SEC titles in a row 1993-94-95-96, a Heisman winner coached by the Heisman winner at the same school. Runner up for the SEC in 1992 and 1999.

Spurrier won the sec in bold, second in SEC normal type (9 of his 12 seasons at Florida)...
1990-1991-1992-1993-1994-1995-1996-1999-2001

Spurrier loved the challenge of being the first. At Duke he guided them to their first ACC football title in 1989, did the same at Florida 1991 and wants to pull that same feat off one last time at South Carolina. It's been a difficult task, none the less the old ball coach seems to love his second home away from home in the SEC.

6. Houston Nutt - This wasn't easy, this man has a lot of admiration for Bobby Johnson and his difficult task at Vanderbilt, he's a darn good coach. Lets face it Houston Nutt is a bit of a nut, but he's also a darn good coach. Pulling off back to back 9-4 seasons at Ole Miss is a serious statement for his abilities.

Bobby Petrino is going to have to do a lot more than 5-7 and 8-5 to climb into the top six, a lot of pressure is on his team this season due to the building hype over the perceived talent level at Arkansas. We'll see.

Sunday, July 4, 2010

Four Predictions for the 2010 Gators




1 - Florida will win the SEC - If they do that they'll be in position to win another Title, it's the even year thing so it's time for Urban Meyer's third one. Think the Gators might lose at Alabama and get them in the rematch in the SECC. As mentioned Meyer's big seasons at Florida come in the even years, 2006, 2008 and well you do the math. Not a huge prediction here the Gators are loaded.

2 - John Brantley will be the All-SEC QB, if he doesn't make it McElroy had a great year. Believe this is going to be a huge year for the Gators throwing the ball. Way too many weapons. This is in no way a stretch of the imagination. It's either McElroy or Brantley they will have the advantage of being on the two best teams in the SEC. Brantley will be the best QB in the league in this man's opinion.


3 - Ian Silberman ends up becoming a starter on the offensive line midway through the season if not earlier. Silberman is an outstanding lineman, he just might be too good to keep out of the lineup. He will most likely be 300 lbs this fall, he has the talent to be one of Florida's best and play many seasons in the NFL. Silberman has perfect body position to get the most out of his dam near perfect body. He has the proper bend at the knees and angle in the back, he squares up quickly and nicely, he has long arms, powerful legs and quick feet.

Silberman reminds this man of Jason Odom and David Williams. They all had that flawless form coming in. Odom ended up starting as a freshman along with Reggie Green. Williams was tremendous as a true freshman but redshirted none the less because of the Great Wall of Florida in 1984.

This is a great line in 2010 it could be another Great Wall if Silberman ends up starting.

4 - A true freshman ends up starting at cornerback. Joe Haden started as a true freshman, a year later Janoris Jenkins came in and did the same. This season Janoris will slide over and take Haden's weak-side duties while the Gators look for someone to replace his cornerback position.


Logical bet would be on either Jaylen Watkins or Cody Riggs this fall. Could be Riggs, the link between Jenkins and Haden is they were the quickest guys in their recruiting class. That might give Riggs the edge.

Watkins is extremely talented. So is true freshman Joshua Shaw. Of the three Riggs, Shaw and Watkins I'd bet on Watkins. He has nice size and that great skill set you're looking for, he's a baller.

If something were to happen to Janoris a kid like Shaw might work the weak-side he's really physical.

Moses Jenkins and Jeremy Brown will provide the competition for the three new guys. Brown has the best shot to edge the freshmen out but has been hurt his first two years at Florida with chronic back issues. Moses will not part the waters, he has great size but lacks great quickness and instincts.

Because of Brown's health issues and Adrian Bushell's request for transfer this prediction of a true freshman starting this season isn't that far fetched. Have heard a report that Bushell was granted a transfer but there has been no news on it since the end of spring practice. Some still hold out hope that he is trying to work his way back on the team.

If that doesn't happen there is a very good chance the Gators will end up starting their third true freshman in a row.

Five Musts for the Gators in 2010

1 - LEADERSHIP - When it comes to nut crack'n time, when the going gets tough, the tough get going. When Urban Meyer first came to Florida he worked on team toughness, he talked about how important team leadership is.

One of the greatest leaders of all time, Tim Tebow, moves on as does his counter part on defense Brandon Spikes. Who will fill their shoes?

Florida's football staff will work diligently on this look for players like Mike Pouncey and Ahmad Black to step forward and new ones like John Brantley and Brandon Hicks.

2. Win the Turnover Margin - In 2009 the Gators gathered in 20 INTs, but only 3 fumbles. They were a plus .50 in the turnover margin. In 2008 the Gators were 1.57 with 26 INTs and 9 fumble recoveries. The other championship season in 2006 was unremarkable. The Gators had a good year jumping on eight fumbles and 21 INTs, but they gave it up 24 times that season for a .37 margin, they went conservative on offense, made holding onto a ball an issue and relied on a great defense to win.

Below is a graph of the Gators turnover margin for the past four years, added 2010 as a projection year of what this man thinks will be the mark of a successful season. Note that Tim Tebow kept his INTs way down, I'm giving Brantley a few extra on batted passes and whatnot. Hope for a few more INTs if we score the way I think we will on offense our defense should have that opportunity this season. A +1 turnover margin would be a huge season.

Year
06
07
08
09
10
Comment
Games
14
13
14
14
14
14 means SECC
Fumbles Gained
8
9
9
3
8
around 8 or so is good
INTs Gained
21
11
26
20
22
20 or more is great
Total Gained
29
20
35
23
30only above 30 once
Fumbles Lost
10
9
8
11
7
some bad games '09
INTs Lost
14
6
5
5
8
Tebow was awesome
Total Lost
24
15
13
16
15
15-16 very good
Margin
5
5
22
7
15
10 or over very good
Margin Gained
0.36
0.38
1.57
0.50
1.07
Plus 1 is awesome!!!!

3 - Production in Passing Game - This centers on the wide receivers and their development. Deonte Thompson, Chris Rainey, Andre Debose, Carl Moore and Jordan Reed are on top of the list of players the Gators will depend on to make this a complete offense. John Brantley has proved he can get the ball there on time.

Rainey and Debose need to get and stay healthy, if not Robert Clark could get his chance he's an outstanding WR/Corner prospect.

Thompson needs to have others step up to help free him up, if that happens he should have a great season. Look for TE Reed to have a big season and be one of the guys to help take the pressure off of Thompson.

Other guys who could make things happen this fall are Chris Dunkley and Adrian Coxson. Dunkley is a polished extremely talented receiver with tremendous feet and balance to go along with a Tebow like will to succeed. Coxson is a bruiser with speed, he played QB in high school and will need a lot of coaching up, but this is one of those big shake and bake guys who you can throw the ball out too and he can end up taking it 50 yards for the touch, he has that talent.

With the passing game clicking Florida should have a monster offense this fall. If coach Meyer gives the offense their reins some teams could be forced into a game plan that might better suit the Gator defense. That's 'the keep the ball away from the other team' type offense.

4. Sound Play at Defensive End - Can Justin Trattou stand the physical riggers of being a first stringer the entire season? Will William Green step up and deliver at the SEC level, he's blessed with the quickness? Does all-world Ronald Powell live up to his billing and kick butt this fall?

Florida has so many options, they have eight scholarship DEs this fall, some converted LBs, with the new DC Teryl Austin the Gators could play some 3-4. Austin has spent the last seven years in the NFL and 10 years before that in College.

5 - Find another corner...